[SMM Analysis]Lithium carbonate prices continue to decline steadily, with short-term market still under pressure

This week, the spot price of lithium carbonate continued to decline, with the SMM lithium carbonate index price falling from 63,974 yuan/mt to 63,447yuan/mt, showing an overall trend of fluctuation downward.

From the supply side, there were frequent reports of maintenance, production cuts, and shutdowns at upstream lithium chemical plants this week. In response to these market developments, some companies have indeed implemented maintenance and shutdown plans, while the maintenance schedules of others remain to be further confirmed. Meanwhile, amidst the hedging opportunities presented by the slight rebound in the futures market, some non-integrated lithium chemical plants are expected to show signs of production resumptions or output increases. Overall, while the reduction in output due to maintenance has somewhat suppressed the total production of lithium carbonate, the overall supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level.

Although downstream demand also saw a certain increase in May, due to the significant proportion of customer-supplied and long-term agreement volumes currently, and with prices continuing to fall, downstream material plants are generally adopting a cautious wait-and-see attitude, making it difficult for spot orders to bolster market confidence.

From the perspective of raw material ore, prices have also continued to decline, and no mines have announced production cuts or shutdowns so far. Amidst the weakening cost support, lithium carbonate prices lack upward momentum.

Against the backdrop of an unchanged supply-demand surplus, the lithium carbonate market is expected to remain under pressure in the short term.